Scott 52006 Victoria Derby... Flemington Racecourse!
November 2nd 2006 04:52
Welcome back to Sport Talk!
The Spring Racing Carnival is well and truly in full flight, or full stride to be politically correct. I am lucky enough to work as a bookmaker's clerk in my spare time throughout the year and just love when the spring season rolls around.
I'd like to share some thoughts with you all!
Not only does the Melbourne racing carnival grace the metropolitan courses, it also infects the country racing scene.
From the Cranbourne, Werribee, Geelong and Seymour Cups - Almost every corner of Victoria participates in the lead up to the four big days at Flemington Racecourse, and of course the Caulfield Cup and Moonee Valley Cox Plate.
Country racing is a crucial component of the Spring Racing Carnival. It generates excitement, gives horses the chance to gain weight penalties to qualify for the Melbourne Cup and allows punters to bet on some serious multiples.
But there is an interesting paradox amongst the hype of the Spring Racing Carnival. Why do punters bet more money than usual when it is harder to back a winner.
I work on the other side of the bag (bookie's bag, that is) and would not bet $1 on the Caulfield, Moonee Valley or Flemington feature races. A trivial, interest bet is different, but I'm talking about betting to win big.
Every race has its favourite, but during the Spring Racing Carnival, the fields are as open and closely matched than any other time of the year. Take the Melbourne Cup this year, Tawqeet and Yeats are almost equal favourites.
Tawqeet won the Caulfield Cup (2400 metres) in what can only be described as a dream run. Dwayne Dunn took the inside run and luckily, his horse responded with an amazing turn of foot. But put Tawqeet on the Flemington track, add an extra 800 metres to the race, and a stack of other horses - it goes without saying; anything can happen.
Yeats has yet to have a competitive run in Australia. I was lucky enough to watch the Irish beast go through his paces at Sandown Racecourse a few weeks ago, and boy does he look impressive. But he has not raced for over 130 days... Does this worry anyone? Obviously not the punters...
Makybe Diva was a different story. For want of a better expression, she was a freak. I saw a bloke put a huge bet on her to win the 2004 Melbourne Cup (her second victory). This guy spent all year saving his extra dollars and placed $18,000 on her at the odds of $4.40. He wasn't a racing guru, in fact he knew next to nothing about racing. His bet certainly paid off. I've always wondered whether he went 'all-up' on the great mare in 2005.
Anyway... without Makybe Diva to rest our 'big bets' on, finding a winner over this year's spring carnival is going to be harder than ever. Whatever you do, don't back the favourites for the sake of simplicity!
On Saturday, the 2006 AAMI Victoria Derby will be run at Flemington. The race is run over 2500 metres.
The race favourite is Efficient. Efficient is trained by Graeme Rogerson, who is hoping to go one better after Duelled was second to Benicio in the 2005 AAMI Victoria Derby and Savabeel was runner up to Plastered the previous year.
Efficient has only been beaten once from five starts. It looks a certainty, but try telling that to the other horses in race!
What are your betting techniques/tactics this spring?
The Spring Racing Carnival is well and truly in full flight, or full stride to be politically correct. I am lucky enough to work as a bookmaker's clerk in my spare time throughout the year and just love when the spring season rolls around.
I'd like to share some thoughts with you all!
Not only does the Melbourne racing carnival grace the metropolitan courses, it also infects the country racing scene.
From the Cranbourne, Werribee, Geelong and Seymour Cups - Almost every corner of Victoria participates in the lead up to the four big days at Flemington Racecourse, and of course the Caulfield Cup and Moonee Valley Cox Plate.
Country racing is a crucial component of the Spring Racing Carnival. It generates excitement, gives horses the chance to gain weight penalties to qualify for the Melbourne Cup and allows punters to bet on some serious multiples.
But there is an interesting paradox amongst the hype of the Spring Racing Carnival. Why do punters bet more money than usual when it is harder to back a winner.
I work on the other side of the bag (bookie's bag, that is) and would not bet $1 on the Caulfield, Moonee Valley or Flemington feature races. A trivial, interest bet is different, but I'm talking about betting to win big.
Every race has its favourite, but during the Spring Racing Carnival, the fields are as open and closely matched than any other time of the year. Take the Melbourne Cup this year, Tawqeet and Yeats are almost equal favourites.
Tawqeet won the Caulfield Cup (2400 metres) in what can only be described as a dream run. Dwayne Dunn took the inside run and luckily, his horse responded with an amazing turn of foot. But put Tawqeet on the Flemington track, add an extra 800 metres to the race, and a stack of other horses - it goes without saying; anything can happen.
Yeats has yet to have a competitive run in Australia. I was lucky enough to watch the Irish beast go through his paces at Sandown Racecourse a few weeks ago, and boy does he look impressive. But he has not raced for over 130 days... Does this worry anyone? Obviously not the punters...
Makybe Diva was a different story. For want of a better expression, she was a freak. I saw a bloke put a huge bet on her to win the 2004 Melbourne Cup (her second victory). This guy spent all year saving his extra dollars and placed $18,000 on her at the odds of $4.40. He wasn't a racing guru, in fact he knew next to nothing about racing. His bet certainly paid off. I've always wondered whether he went 'all-up' on the great mare in 2005.
Anyway... without Makybe Diva to rest our 'big bets' on, finding a winner over this year's spring carnival is going to be harder than ever. Whatever you do, don't back the favourites for the sake of simplicity!
On Saturday, the 2006 AAMI Victoria Derby will be run at Flemington. The race is run over 2500 metres.
The race favourite is Efficient. Efficient is trained by Graeme Rogerson, who is hoping to go one better after Duelled was second to Benicio in the 2005 AAMI Victoria Derby and Savabeel was runner up to Plastered the previous year.
Efficient has only been beaten once from five starts. It looks a certainty, but try telling that to the other horses in race!
What are your betting techniques/tactics this spring?
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