Scott 5AFL Round Four - Tips, Odds and Best Bets
April 9th 2008 11:57
By Glen Atwell
Welcome back to Sport Talk!
Round four of the AFL 2008 season is already upon us, and it's time to take a look at who's playing, who's going to win and what the best (and worst bets) of the round are.
All prices quoted are the latest Betfair odds.
On Friday night, it begins with Essendon ($2.42) vs Bulldogs ($1.68) at the Telstra Dome. No home advantage for the Bombers, in fact, the Bulldogs beat the Saints at the Dome last Friday night, the Dons beat Carlton on the wide expanses of the nearby MCG.
On the same night, the same ground, and even without Scott West (knee), it's hard to see the Bombers getting over the Doggies. Essendon have the capacity to run with the Bulldogs, but without Leroy Jetta (hamstring) they lose some of their zip.
At $1.68, the Western Bulldogs are Sport Talk's best bet of the weekend.
On Saturday, North Melbourne ($1.35) take on the Demons ($3.75) at the MCG. Melbourne are irrestible at both the 23.5 line ($1.88) and to win by less than 39.5 points ($4.20).
This is the same side that was within a kick of Geelong nearing the end of the third quarter at Skilled Stadium on Sunday. The Kangaroos were smashed by Essendon in round one, and Geelong smashed Essendon in round two. It's an interesting form line, considering Melbourne got so close to Geelong last week.
A small punt on Melbourne to win by less than 39.5 points at the heavily inflated odds is a great value bet.
In other games:
St Kilda ($4.30) represent good value against Geelong ($1.30). The Cats are great, but the Saints are better than their last three quarters against the Doggies. If St Kilda are going to make it this year, they'll push Geelong all the way.
Sydney ($1.28) are stupidly short against West Coast ($4.30) at the SCG. If this game was in Western Australia, the odds would be in the Eagles' favour. I can't see Sydney winning by anymore than four goals.
Port Adelaide ($1.50) against Brisbane ($2.96) seems about right. Hawthorn ($1.51) up against Adelaide ($2.90) looks spot on too.
The Hawks are flying, the Crows are only mediocre away from home. Expect Buddy Franklin to kick the first goal and back any Hawthorn on-baller in head-to-head bets against Adelaide opponents.
If I was loading up on a big, big bet. Hawthorn at a $1.50 looks very attractive.
Carlton ($4.30) represent some good value against Collingwood ($1.29). The Magpies haven't convinced me yet, despite losing their only game of the year by a kick against the Lions (and the umpires) at the Gabba. Carlton were full of confidence and running against the Bombers last week, but Chris Judd and Nick Stevens just ran out of puff.
If they can dominate late into the game, the Blues are a chance to cause the upset of the round. Don't forget they have the club's longest losing streak hanging over their heads, and Brett Ratten has to win a game sooner or later.
Fremantle ($1.22) and Richmond ($5.40) close out the round and I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole. Fremantle are too unreliable and short to back, and Richmond don't seem overly interested when they play away. Terry Wallace will have to generate a miracle to steal four points from Subiaco Oval.
Tips:
Bulldogs
Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Fremantle
Good luck, happy punting, and please post any winning, losing, or otherwise interesting bets you've had.
Welcome back to Sport Talk!
Round four of the AFL 2008 season is already upon us, and it's time to take a look at who's playing, who's going to win and what the best (and worst bets) of the round are.
All prices quoted are the latest Betfair odds.
On Friday night, it begins with Essendon ($2.42) vs Bulldogs ($1.68) at the Telstra Dome. No home advantage for the Bombers, in fact, the Bulldogs beat the Saints at the Dome last Friday night, the Dons beat Carlton on the wide expanses of the nearby MCG.
On the same night, the same ground, and even without Scott West (knee), it's hard to see the Bombers getting over the Doggies. Essendon have the capacity to run with the Bulldogs, but without Leroy Jetta (hamstring) they lose some of their zip.
At $1.68, the Western Bulldogs are Sport Talk's best bet of the weekend.
On Saturday, North Melbourne ($1.35) take on the Demons ($3.75) at the MCG. Melbourne are irrestible at both the 23.5 line ($1.88) and to win by less than 39.5 points ($4.20).
This is the same side that was within a kick of Geelong nearing the end of the third quarter at Skilled Stadium on Sunday. The Kangaroos were smashed by Essendon in round one, and Geelong smashed Essendon in round two. It's an interesting form line, considering Melbourne got so close to Geelong last week.
A small punt on Melbourne to win by less than 39.5 points at the heavily inflated odds is a great value bet.
In other games:
St Kilda ($4.30) represent good value against Geelong ($1.30). The Cats are great, but the Saints are better than their last three quarters against the Doggies. If St Kilda are going to make it this year, they'll push Geelong all the way.
Sydney ($1.28) are stupidly short against West Coast ($4.30) at the SCG. If this game was in Western Australia, the odds would be in the Eagles' favour. I can't see Sydney winning by anymore than four goals.
Port Adelaide ($1.50) against Brisbane ($2.96) seems about right. Hawthorn ($1.51) up against Adelaide ($2.90) looks spot on too.
The Hawks are flying, the Crows are only mediocre away from home. Expect Buddy Franklin to kick the first goal and back any Hawthorn on-baller in head-to-head bets against Adelaide opponents.
If I was loading up on a big, big bet. Hawthorn at a $1.50 looks very attractive.
Carlton ($4.30) represent some good value against Collingwood ($1.29). The Magpies haven't convinced me yet, despite losing their only game of the year by a kick against the Lions (and the umpires) at the Gabba. Carlton were full of confidence and running against the Bombers last week, but Chris Judd and Nick Stevens just ran out of puff.
If they can dominate late into the game, the Blues are a chance to cause the upset of the round. Don't forget they have the club's longest losing streak hanging over their heads, and Brett Ratten has to win a game sooner or later.
Fremantle ($1.22) and Richmond ($5.40) close out the round and I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole. Fremantle are too unreliable and short to back, and Richmond don't seem overly interested when they play away. Terry Wallace will have to generate a miracle to steal four points from Subiaco Oval.
Tips:
Bulldogs
Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Fremantle
Good luck, happy punting, and please post any winning, losing, or otherwise interesting bets you've had.
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