quentinAFL Tips and Best Bets: Round 13
June 20th 2008 01:14
ROUND 12 of the 2008 AFL Premiership Season is upon us. Tonight's game at Telstra Dome, between the struggling Saints and the failing Fremantle should be one of the tightest of the rounds.
Essendon should push Carlton all the way, and Adelaide will take stock of an impressive record at the Gabba when they take on the Brisbane Lions.
Let's have a look at the games and betting odds:
St Kilda $2.40 vs Fremantle $1.55
Hawthorn $1.14 vs Kangaroos $5.25
Port Adelaide $1.30 vs Richmond $3.30
Brisbane Lions $1.43 vs Adelaide $2.70
West Coast Eagles $5.00 vs Geelong $1.15
Melbourne $8.00 vs Sydney Swans $1.06
Carlton $1.30 vs Essendon $3.30
Collingwood $3.70 vs Western Bulldogs $1.25
Immediately, I'm flagging St Kilda to beat Fremantle at $2.40 as Sport Talk's best bet of the round. I think the bookmakers have got this horribly wrong.
Fremantle found form against North Melbourne last week and got across the line convincingly. But the win was well overdue, and the Kangaroos had been battered by a tough game against Geelong the week before, and before that the North Melbourne were smashed by the Lions at the Gabba.
St Kilda have been beaten by Western Bulldogs and Sydney in the past fortnight. Both teams look like pressing for a top four position at season's end.
St Kilda has dropped Nick Dal Santo and Stephen Milne for tonight's game. I think this is an indication of Ross Lyon's 'heads will roll' attitude. Tonight is a test for captain Nick Riewoldt - expect him to play well.
The Saints will lead at quarter time, and should go on to win the match by less than 39.5 points. As prolific horse trainer Brian Cox would say, "back with confidence".
Essendon, at odds of $3.30, also represents a smidgen of value against the in-form Blues on Sunday afternoon.
The Bombers beat the Blues earlier this year in a high scoring affair at the MCG, and the team lists are much the same this time around. Essendon is without Alwyn Davey, but have found some spark in recruit David Myers.
Carlton beat Collingwood last weekend, and once again Fevola will be the key. If Paddy Ryder gets the job on Fev, and restricts him to three or four goals, Essendon should win.
Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Chris Judd will need to keep the supply thick and fast to the forward line to keep the Blues on top.
Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas have returned to form, and Essendon's midfield was all over the West Coast Eagles last Friday night at the Dome. But the wide expanses of the MCG might test the baby Bombers' lung capacity.
It's a line ball, but the Bombers are worth backing at $3.30.
Adelaide at $2.70 represent good value against the Lions at the Gabba. The Crows have a strong record up north, and this game will be decided by less than two or three goals. Adelaide will be pumped to claw back a win that got away against the Hawks last Saturday night.
Of the shorties, Port Adelaide look certainties to beat Richmond at AAMI Stadium. $1.30 is generous. Load up and get in line to collect.
Sport Talk's tips for Round 13:
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
Essendon
Collingwood
Good luck tipsters and punters!
Essendon should push Carlton all the way, and Adelaide will take stock of an impressive record at the Gabba when they take on the Brisbane Lions.
Let's have a look at the games and betting odds:
St Kilda $2.40 vs Fremantle $1.55
Hawthorn $1.14 vs Kangaroos $5.25
Port Adelaide $1.30 vs Richmond $3.30
Brisbane Lions $1.43 vs Adelaide $2.70
West Coast Eagles $5.00 vs Geelong $1.15
Melbourne $8.00 vs Sydney Swans $1.06
Carlton $1.30 vs Essendon $3.30
Collingwood $3.70 vs Western Bulldogs $1.25
Immediately, I'm flagging St Kilda to beat Fremantle at $2.40 as Sport Talk's best bet of the round. I think the bookmakers have got this horribly wrong.
Fremantle found form against North Melbourne last week and got across the line convincingly. But the win was well overdue, and the Kangaroos had been battered by a tough game against Geelong the week before, and before that the North Melbourne were smashed by the Lions at the Gabba.
St Kilda have been beaten by Western Bulldogs and Sydney in the past fortnight. Both teams look like pressing for a top four position at season's end.
St Kilda has dropped Nick Dal Santo and Stephen Milne for tonight's game. I think this is an indication of Ross Lyon's 'heads will roll' attitude. Tonight is a test for captain Nick Riewoldt - expect him to play well.
The Saints will lead at quarter time, and should go on to win the match by less than 39.5 points. As prolific horse trainer Brian Cox would say, "back with confidence".
Essendon, at odds of $3.30, also represents a smidgen of value against the in-form Blues on Sunday afternoon.
The Bombers beat the Blues earlier this year in a high scoring affair at the MCG, and the team lists are much the same this time around. Essendon is without Alwyn Davey, but have found some spark in recruit David Myers.
Carlton beat Collingwood last weekend, and once again Fevola will be the key. If Paddy Ryder gets the job on Fev, and restricts him to three or four goals, Essendon should win.
Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Chris Judd will need to keep the supply thick and fast to the forward line to keep the Blues on top.
Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas have returned to form, and Essendon's midfield was all over the West Coast Eagles last Friday night at the Dome. But the wide expanses of the MCG might test the baby Bombers' lung capacity.
It's a line ball, but the Bombers are worth backing at $3.30.
Adelaide at $2.70 represent good value against the Lions at the Gabba. The Crows have a strong record up north, and this game will be decided by less than two or three goals. Adelaide will be pumped to claw back a win that got away against the Hawks last Saturday night.
Of the shorties, Port Adelaide look certainties to beat Richmond at AAMI Stadium. $1.30 is generous. Load up and get in line to collect.
Sport Talk's tips for Round 13:
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
Essendon
Collingwood
Good luck tipsters and punters!
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Comment by Shaun Inguanzo
Blogocratic Nightmare
Wouldn't pick the Pies, though, as I think the doggies are too hot at the moment.
Comment by Glen Atwell
Comment by Anonymous
get on that
Comment by Glen Atwell